2024: What will we see, and how will it impact us?

75% of the world’s democracies vote in 2024. Arguably, it is one of the most important years of the 21st century. The repercussions will shape the rest of the century and – if you don’t mind me going slightly over the top – the future of mankind.

I’m going to focus on the three most important to us: the US election, the EU election, and the UK election. There are important elections elsewhere, including India, South Africa and Russia. Though something tells me, the latter won’t be much of a debate…

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The UK election seems like a foregone conclusion, and the markets seem to have already considered this. Since December 2021, Labour has held a very healthy poll lead. What’s significant about that date? Partygate. Since then, we’ve seen Boris forced out, the calamitous weeks of Liz Truss & now Rishi Sunak.

There was almost a national sigh of relief when Sunak became the PM. Finally, a grown-up in charge, let’s have some calm. But sadly for Sunak, it’s not gone that way. Yes, we’ve seen the economy calm down, with inflation halving, but the PM has failed on the other 4 of his 5 targets for 2023.

Sunak has a 61% disapproval rating, and it looks like his – and the Conservatives – time is up.

The country is ready for change. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is set to stroll into Downing Street. However, what is yet to be known is whether it’ll be a Labour majority or a coalition government. A Labour majority would be the single biggest swing in history, quite a feat and one to praise Starmer for? It looks more like wanting to eliminate the Conservatives than a strong desire for Labour. Actually, Starmer is doing quite poorly in the polls himself, with 46% of pollsters believing Starmer is doing a ‘bad’ job for the Labour party.

But it seems like a Labour Government is coming, hopefully bringing positive change.

There is some thought that we may move closer to the EU, with a new deal facilitating easier trade. However, Starmer has promised that the Labour Government won’t see sweeping changes. We won’t see a wave of capital spending similar to New Labour in 1997.

However, this has been the biggest election in the US for many years. This will shape internal US policy and, more importantly, their foreign policy. Worryingly, there’s a chance the former president and the still highly (fake) tanned Donald Trump will take back the White House.

We thought we got rid of him in 2021, didn’t we? Especially after the January 6th Capitol attacks. However, Trump is Teflon, nothing sticks. It’s quite incredible, really; his popularity has seemingly grown.

If Trump runs, he could defeat Biden in November. Permission granted to be frightened. Because this time around, Trump will be out for revenge. Last time, the senate and advisers around him blocked him from fully implementing his policies. If he takes office again, he won’t let that happen. He’ll surround himself with his yes men. And that could be really frightening.

Trump will greatly reduce military support for Ukraine, placing more reliance on Europe, something Europe cannot afford. This could lead to a Russian victory, changing the landscape of Europe forever. Would Trump take the US out of NATO? Nothing is out of the question with this man.

So it’s bad news for European Governments and their people. Energy and petrol prices will rise, and Europe could feel isolated.

European governments also have the EU election to be concerned about. Recently, both Italy & the Netherlands elected new governments that don’t support immigration in the EU. This has cast doubt on the strength of the Union moving forward. In Germany, we have seen the rise of the AFD (Alternative for Germany), a far-right party concerned about Germany’s position in the EU that has just won its first city mayoral election.

If Germany doubts the EU, how long can it last? The UK leaving was damaging enough to the trade bloc, but this could spell the beginning of the end. It’s something to keep an eye on, with the 2024 European elections becoming increasingly fascinating.

It’s a lot to take in – but what does it mean for our day-to-day?

Thankfully, while it might not always seem so, the UK election is the most under control. The markets are prepared for it – and with little changing following Labour wins in by-elections – we shouldn’t have too much to worry about.

It’s always sensible to have one eye on the US and another on Europe, but 2024 seems to be a year that could bring a lot of change. Those who were hoping for a quiet one, I wouldn’t hold your breath…